THATSABOOKING

England Premier League · Matchweek 9

Chelsea
Sun 27 Oct, 13:00v2–1Lineups predictedLineups confirmedFull time
Newcastle
S. Hooper4.7 yellows/game
REPLAYStep through the day like you would live. Picks only use what was known at each point.

Predicted lineups Ranked by booking chance, including the risk a player doesn't start. Tap a player for the evidence and to log prices; ★ star the ones you like.

Player · start chance · last 5ChanceFair
7JoelintonM92% start29%5/2Not booked · 1 fouls
8/8starts
0.43cards/90*
2.0fouls/90*
1.3won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 29%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games32%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−2.1
Foul rate2.0 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+4.6
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−3.4
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+1.5
History v opponent1 card in 2 games v Chelsea (only 2 meetings: barely counted)+0.7
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Noni Madueke (midfielder): 1.3 fouls won and 4.3 dribbles per 90+3.8
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−2.5
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−5.9
Our chance29%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 5/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

3W. FofanaD75% start28%11/4Booked
7/7starts
0.50cards/90*
1.4fouls/90*
0.9won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 28%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games37%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−2.4
Foul rate1.4 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+4.8
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.9
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.7
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Anthony Gordon (forward): 2.2 fouls won and 3.4 dribbles per 90+3.9
Chance of starting75% likely to start: started 4 of 5 recent team sheets−7.8
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−4.2
Our chance28%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 11/4. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

3M. CucurellaD75% start25%3/1Not booked · 0 fouls
7/7starts
0.49cards/90*
1.0fouls/90*
1.5won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 25%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games36%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−2.3
Foul rate1.0 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+1.3
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.7
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.6
History v opponent1 card in 3 games v Newcastle (3 meetings: counted at 33% weight)−0.4
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Sandro Tonali (midfielder): 1.7 fouls won and 1.8 dribbles per 90+1.9
Chance of starting75% likely to start: started 4 of 5 recent team sheets−6.6
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−1.3
Our chance25%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 3/1. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

25M. CaicedoM92% start22%7/2Not booked · 2 fouls
8/8starts
0.30cards/90*
1.6fouls/90*
1.5won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 22%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games24%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.7
Foul rate1.6 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+1.7
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.3
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.2
History v opponent1 card in 4 games v Newcastle (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)+0.2
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Harvey Barnes (midfielder): 1.5 fouls won and 2.1 dribbles per 90+1.1
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.5
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+1.4
Our chance22%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 7/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

3L. HallD75% start21%4/1Not booked · 0 fouls
5/8starts
0.32cards/90*
0.7fouls/90*
0.6won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 21%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games25%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.7
Foul rate0.7 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender−1.7
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.3
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+1.0
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Noni Madueke (midfielder): 1.3 fouls won and 4.3 dribbles per 90+2.6
Chance of starting75% likely to start: started 4 of 5 recent team sheets−4.6
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+2.8
Our chance21%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 4/1. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

11N. JacksonF92% start19%9/2Not booked · 2 fouls
8/8starts
0.29cards/90*
0.9fouls/90*
1.2won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 19%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games23%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.6
Foul rate0.9 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical forward−1.5
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.1
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.0
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Newcastle (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−2.0
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.1
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.3
Our chance19%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

10C. PalmerM92% start19%9/2Not booked · 1 fouls
8/8starts
0.26cards/90*
0.7fouls/90*
1.4won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 19%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games21%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.5
Foul rate0.7 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder−3.3
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−0.9
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.8
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Newcastle (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−1.6
Direct opponentOn the centre, up against Bruno Guimarães (midfielder): 2.8 fouls won and 2.6 dribbles per 90+2.9
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.1
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.3
Our chance19%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

10A. GordonF92% start19%9/2Didn't play
8/8starts
0.23cards/90*
1.1fouls/90*
2.2won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 19%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games19%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.4
Foul rate1.1 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical forward−0.3
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−1.9
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.8
History v opponent0 cards in 4 games v Chelsea (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)−2.3
Direct opponentOn the centre, up against Wesley Fofana (defender): 0.9 fouls won and 0.7 dribbles per 90+1.1
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.5
Our chance19%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

33D. BurnD92% start19%9/2Not booked · 1 fouls
8/8starts
0.24cards/90*
1.0fouls/90*
0.4won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 19%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games20%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.4
Foul rate1.0 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+0.5
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.1
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.9
History v opponent0 cards in 3 games v Chelsea (3 meetings: counted at 33% weight)−2.5
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Nicolas Jackson (forward): 1.2 fouls won and 2.6 dribbles per 90−0.4
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.6
Our chance19%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

16S. TonaliM58% start19%9/2Booked
3/6starts
0.29cards/90*
1.3fouls/90*
1.7won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 19%Medium confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games23%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.6
Foul rate1.3 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+0.4
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.3
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+1.0
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Jadon Sancho (midfielder): 0.8 fouls won and 3.7 dribbles per 90+0.5
Chance of starting58% likely to start: started 3 of 5 recent team sheets−7.1
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.6
Our chance19%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

6L. ColwillD92% start18%9/2Not booked · 0 fouls
8/8starts
0.18cards/90*
1.1fouls/90*
0.8won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 18%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games15%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.1
Foul rate1.1 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+1.0
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−0.8
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.8
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Anthony Gordon (forward): 2.2 fouls won and 3.4 dribbles per 90+1.7
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.6
Our chance18%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

5F. SchärD92% start18%9/2Booked
6/6starts
0.24cards/90*
1.0fouls/90*
0.8won/90*

*Weighted to recent games and adjusted for small samples.

How we got to 18%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games19%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.4
Foul rate1.0 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+0.6
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.0
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.9
History v opponent0 cards in 4 games v Chelsea (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)−2.4
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Nicolas Jackson (forward): 1.2 fouls won and 2.6 dribbles per 90−0.4
Chance of starting92% likely to start: started 5 of 5 recent team sheets−1.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.7
Our chance18%
  • Lineup not confirmed: chance includes not starting
Prices you've seen

Our fair price is 9/2. Anything bigger is worth a closer look.

Show 28 more players
39B. GuimarãesM18%
27M. GustoD18%
40R. VeigaM17%
2K. TrippierD16%
17E. FernándezM15%
24R. JamesD15%
19J. SanchoM14%
45R. LaviaM14%
7P. NetoF14%
4T. AdarabioyoD14%
23J. MurphyF14%
8S. LongstaffM13%
20N. MaduekeM13%
11H. BarnesM13%
8K. Dewsbury-HallM12%
10W. OsulaF12%
25L. KellyD12%
5A. DisasiD12%
5B. BadiashileD11%
14J. FélixF11%
27M. MudrykM11%
28J. WillockM10%
17E. KrafthD9%
9A. IsakF9%
67L. MileyM8%
2T. LivramentoD8%
24M. AlmirónF8%
18C. NkunkuF7%
⏱

Team sheets aren't out yet

They usually land about an hour before kick-off. Then every chance is recalculated with confirmed starters, positions and direct opponents.

3Fofana6Colwill27Gusto24James25Caicedo10Palmer45Lavia7Neto20Madueke11Jackson3Hall33Burn5Schär2Livramento7Joelinton16Tonali39Guimarães11Barnes9Isak24Almirón

Newcastle top, Chelsea bottom. Dashed ring = 25%+ booking chance. ⇄ = out of position. Left–right order within a line isn't in our data yet.

Biggest movers

before → after lineups
10A. GordonNot in squad19% → 0%▼ 18.7
2K. TrippierNot in squad16% → 0%▼ 15.7
3M. CucurellaOn the bench25% → 12%▼ 13.5
23J. MurphyOn the bench14% → 5%▼ 8.2
19J. SanchoOn the bench14% → 6%▼ 8.2
17E. FernándezOn the bench15% → 7%▼ 8.1

Key duels

who they're likely up against
7Joelintonv20Madueke29%Madueke: 1.3 fouls won and 4.3 dribbles per 90
3Fofanav9Isak27%Isak: 0.7 fouls won and 2.7 dribbles per 90
24Jamesv16Tonali22%Tonali: 1.7 fouls won and 1.8 dribbles per 90
25Caicedov7Joelinton22%Joelinton: 1.3 fouls won and 2.0 dribbles per 90
16Tonaliv7Neto22%Neto: 1.2 fouls won and 4.0 dribbles per 90
27Gustov11Barnes21%Barnes: 1.5 fouls won and 2.1 dribbles per 90

Chelsea

Starting XI
3W. FofanaD27%−0Booked
How we got to 27%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games37%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−2.4
Foul rate1.4 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+4.8
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.9
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.7
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Alexander Isak (forward): 0.7 fouls won and 2.7 dribbles per 90−3.1
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−5.3
Our chance27%
6L. ColwillD16%−20 fouls
How we got to 16%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games15%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.1
Foul rate1.1 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+1.0
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−0.8
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.8
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Alexander Isak (forward): 0.7 fouls won and 2.7 dribbles per 90−1.3
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.2
Our chance16%
27M. GustoD21%+31 fouls
How we got to 21%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games21%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.5
Foul rate1.1 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+1.1
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.1
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.0
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Harvey Barnes (midfielder): 1.5 fouls won and 2.1 dribbles per 90+1.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+1.0
Our chance21%
24R. JamesD22%+70 fouls
How we got to 22%Medium confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games26%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.8
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.3
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.2
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Sandro Tonali (midfielder): 1.7 fouls won and 1.8 dribbles per 90+1.4
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−0.4
Our chance22%
  • Only 0.6 full games of minutes this season
25M. CaicedoM22%−12 fouls
How we got to 22%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games24%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.7
Foul rate1.6 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+1.7
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.3
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.2
History v opponent1 card in 4 games v Newcastle (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)+0.2
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Joelinton (midfielder): 1.3 fouls won and 2.0 dribbles per 90+0.3
Our chance22%
10C. PalmerM18%−11 fouls
How we got to 18%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games21%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.5
Foul rate0.7 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder−3.3
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−0.9
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.8
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Newcastle (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−1.6
Direct opponentOn the centre, up against Bruno Guimarães (midfielder): 2.8 fouls won and 2.6 dribbles per 90+2.9
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+2.8
Our chance18%
45R. LaviaM21%+7Booked
How we got to 21%Medium confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games19%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.4
Foul rate1.1 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder−0.4
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−0.9
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.9
History v opponent2 cards in 2 games v Newcastle (only 2 meetings: barely counted)+3.4
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Sandro Tonali (midfielder): 1.7 fouls won and 1.8 dribbles per 90+1.2
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+1.0
Our chance21%
  • Only 1.4 full games of minutes this season
7P. NetoM20%+7Booked
How we got to 20%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games21%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.5
Foul rate0.9 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical forward−1.4
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.0
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.9
History v opponent1 card in 4 games v Newcastle (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)+1.3
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Sandro Tonali (midfielder): 1.7 fouls won and 1.8 dribbles per 90+1.2
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+1.3
Our chance20%
20N. MaduekeM12%−1Booked
How we got to 12%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games9%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−0.7
Foul rate0.8 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder−1.1
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−0.4
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−0.4
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Newcastle (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−0.3
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+5.4
Our chance12%
11N. JacksonF19%−02 fouls
How we got to 19%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games23%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.6
Foul rate0.9 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical forward−1.5
HomeChelsea pick up 3.5 yellows a game at home (3.8 overall)−1.1
Match patternChelsea are favourites: more of the ball−1.0
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Newcastle (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−2.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+2.7
Our chance19%

Bench: Cucurella, Veiga, Fernández, Sancho, Adarabioyo, Félix, Mudryk, Nkunku

Newcastle

Starting XI
3L. HallD22%+10 fouls
How we got to 22%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games25%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.7
Foul rate0.7 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender−1.7
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.3
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+1.0
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Noni Madueke (midfielder): 1.3 fouls won and 4.3 dribbles per 90+2.6
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−0.5
Our chance22%
33D. BurnD18%−11 fouls
How we got to 18%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games20%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.4
Foul rate1.0 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+0.5
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.1
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.9
History v opponent0 cards in 3 games v Chelsea (3 meetings: counted at 33% weight)−2.5
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Nicolas Jackson (forward): 1.2 fouls won and 2.6 dribbles per 90−0.4
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+3.0
Our chance18%
5F. SchärD18%−1Booked
How we got to 18%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games19%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.4
Foul rate1.0 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender+0.6
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.0
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.9
History v opponent0 cards in 4 games v Chelsea (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)−2.4
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Nicolas Jackson (forward): 1.2 fouls won and 2.6 dribbles per 90−0.4
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+3.1
Our chance18%
2T. LivramentoD10%+20 fouls
How we got to 10%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games7%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−0.5
Foul rate0.5 fouls per 90 v 0.9 for a typical defender−1.1
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−0.6
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.3
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Chelsea (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−0.3
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Pedro Neto (forward): 1.2 fouls won and 4.0 dribbles per 90+0.2
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+5.4
Our chance10%
7JoelintonM29%+01 fouls
How we got to 29%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games32%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−2.1
Foul rate2.0 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+4.6
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−3.4
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+1.5
History v opponent1 card in 2 games v Chelsea (only 2 meetings: barely counted)+0.7
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Noni Madueke (midfielder): 1.3 fouls won and 4.3 dribbles per 90+3.8
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)−7.9
Our chance29%
16S. TonaliM22%+3Booked
How we got to 22%Medium confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games23%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.6
Foul rate1.3 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+0.4
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−2.3
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+1.0
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Pedro Neto (forward): 1.2 fouls won and 4.0 dribbles per 90+0.9
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+0.2
Our chance22%
39B. GuimarãesM18%−11 fouls
How we got to 18%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games17%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−1.2
Foul rate1.4 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder+0.6
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−1.8
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.8
History v opponent0 cards in 4 games v Chelsea (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)−2.2
Direct opponentOn the centre, up against Cole Palmer (midfielder): 1.4 fouls won and 2.9 dribbles per 90+1.1
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+3.3
Our chance18%
11H. BarnesF14%+13 fouls
How we got to 14%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games11%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−0.8
Foul rate0.9 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical midfielder−0.9
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−1.1
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.5
History v opponent0 cards in 2 games v Chelsea (only 2 meetings: barely counted)−0.5
Direct opponentOn the left, up against Malo Gusto (defender): 0.9 fouls won and 1.3 dribbles per 90+1.2
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+4.9
Our chance14%
9A. IsakF10%+14 fouls
How we got to 10%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games7%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−0.5
Foul rate0.7 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical forward−1.0
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−0.6
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.3
History v opponent0 cards in 3 games v Chelsea (3 meetings: counted at 33% weight)−0.5
Direct opponentOn the centre, up against Wesley Fofana (defender): 0.9 fouls won and 0.7 dribbles per 90+0.3
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+5.4
Our chance10%
24M. AlmirónF13%+51 fouls
How we got to 13%High confidence
If he starts a typical gamehis own card rate, weighted to recent games9%
RefereeS. Hooper averages 4.7 yellows a game over 29 (league 5.2)−0.7
Foul rate0.9 fouls per 90 v 1.2 for a typical forward−0.8
AwayNewcastle pick up 1.8 yellows a game away (2.4 overall)−0.9
Match patternNewcastle are underdogs: more time defending+0.4
History v opponent0 cards in 4 games v Chelsea (4 meetings: counted at 40% weight)−1.1
Direct opponentOn the right, up against Reece James (defender): 1.0 fouls won and 1.3 dribbles per 90+1.0
CalibrationAdjusted so our % matches how often similar estimates came true (fitted on 2023/24)+5.3
Our chance13%
  • Only 0.6 full games of minutes this season

Bench: Murphy, Longstaff, Osula, Kelly, Willock, Krafth, Miley

JoelintonMidfielder · Newcastle

–cards
–cards / 90
–fouls
–fouls / 90
–starts
–avg mins
SteadyFouls per match, newest on the right. Faded bars = came off the bench.
24012013010141521312
DateOpponentRoleMinsFoulsCard
19 OctBrightonHM90′2–
5 OctEvertonAM90′1–
28 SeptManchester CityHM90′3
21 SeptFulhamAM74′1–
15 SeptWolvesAM45′2
1 SeptTottenhamHM90′5
25 AugBournemouthAM90′1
17 AugSouthamptonHM90′4–
19 MayBrentfordAM81′1
15 MayManchester UnitedAsub28′0–
11 MayBrightonHsub22′1–
4 MayBurnleyAsub13′0–
1 JanLiverpoolAF82′3
26 DecNottingham ForestHsub19′1–
16 DecFulhamHM36′0–
10 DecTottenhamAM90′2
7 DecEvertonAM90′1–
2 DecManchester UnitedHM90′0
25 NovChelseaHM90′4
11 NovBournemouthAF90′2–

Chelsea v Newcastle: previous meetings

11 Mar 2024 Chelsea 3–2 Newcastle · 4 yellows

25 Nov 2023 Newcastle 4–1 Chelsea · 10 yellows

28 May 2023 Chelsea 1–1 Newcastle · 0 yellows

12 Nov 2022 Newcastle 1–0 Chelsea · 6 yellows

Joelinton v Chelsea

2 meetings
DateRoleMinsFoulsWonCard
25 Nov 23M90′42
12 Nov 22F90′11–

How much it counts: Only 2 meetings: barely counted. One old booking is never treated as a pattern; history only moves the chance with several recent meetings in a similar role.

Likely direct opponent today: Noni Madueke (1.3 fouls won and 4.3 dribbles per 90). Individual player-v-player history needs earlier seasons, coming next.

S. Hooper

29 games this season

About average for yellows, and stricter lately (5.6 a game in his last 5).

Yellows a game4.7 v 5.2
Reds a game0.14 v 0.16
Fouls a game22.2 v 22.7
Cards per foul0.21 v 0.23
Yellows, last 55.6 v 5.2

White tick = league average · yellow = above it · blue = below it.

Team tendencies

per game, this season
Chelsea Newcastle
Fouls committed11.010.8
at home / away11.0 / 11.014.0 / 7.5
Yellow cards3.82.4
at home / away3.5 / 4.03.0 / 1.8
Fouls won12.414.1
Fouls, last 510.89.4
Shots for / against13.5 / 13.312.8 / 15.4

Expected pattern

Chelsea 55%Draw23% Newcastle

Pre-match prices make Chelsea favourites (55% v 23%). Newcastle are more likely to spend spells defending, which tends to mean more fouls, but it's one factor, not a rule.

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